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As Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince did say “Well yo are y’all ready for TikTok yet? (Pump it up Congress)”, or something like that. Yeah, yeah, you’re too young… TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew today faced a grilling today at the bipartisan House Energy and Commerce Committee. The session was a little combative to say the least and has no doubt added major pressure to the case to the popular theme of banning TikTok outright. So, what now for brands who are active, or considering being active, on the least understood but often most hyped platform by brands and agencies alike.

Well, there are a few likely outcomes which I’ve detailed below as hotter takes than a Web 3.0 strategy, but first you need to understand the issues and it likely all depends on how many pulses it can get racing in US politics.

If the session today is anything to go by, it might just be the catalyst that pushes an outright ban right up the agenda faster than you can say Elon Musk bought it and made it far right.“The Chinese Communist Party has the finger on the pulse of almost half the population [of the USA]” , “Do you know how many children have died because of this”, “The spy in American’s pockets”. Jeez, say what you’re really thinking Reps. Fair or not, these are a flavour of the types of criticisms that have been levelled at Mr Chou in the committee session.

There has been a some balance on issues with some Representatives mentioning other social platforms alongside the same, serious, issues: suicide, self harm, sexualisation but in large it’s an attack relatively focused on TikTok specifically, regardless if the same aspects could be levelled at Meta or Twitter. However, while these issues should of course be central focuses, it’s unlikely that this would be a catalyst for TikTok to be banned outright (as has been touted since the Trump administration days).

It’s the national security aspect that is likely to be the primary driver, that is something everyone can understand and agree is a potentially dangerous issue. You can’t get away from the fact that ByteDance (TikTok’s owner) is a Chinese company, and as such obliged to cooperate with the Chinese Government, and that is something I think the US Government likely cannot stomach.

Governments around the world and even the BBC, too, have banned TikTok on official devices. There is a clear fear. If the US ban TikTok, the UK and Europe surely won’t be far behind… so what does that mean for brands and their planning?

1. Outright ban – Likelihood: 4/10

It’s possible, of course but I don’t think it’s likely to happen. The fear over data collection for China is strong but so are market forces. When almost ½ of the US population alone use it – and with a desirable younger demographic too – there is money in the water and the sharks can surely smell it. In any case, if that does happen Instagram will no doubt fill the vacuum, as it’s already attempting to do.

Brand plan: No changes – it’s less likely to happen in my view and even if it does, you push your strategy to reels.

2. Forced sale to a US company – Likelihood: 8/10

Whether this is someone already in the space (Zucky McGoogle), or a new entity that is actually completely separate to TikTok is likely a 50/50. The company initiated something called “Project Texas”, which was an attempt to build a Chinese wall (please do not pardon the pun), i.e. all data held and processed in the US, overseen by Oracle. However, butter many parsnips in session today, it did not – so one outcome is the creation of an entirely new entity where financial ownership could still be maintained. Some kind of spin-off company with full US roots and oversight. 

Brand plan: No changes – everything this likely to stay the same, or if you believe the hype, same but you won’t suddenly wake up with a funky haircut and realise you’re a communist.   

3. No change – Likelihood: 2/10

I think this is the least likely, something will eventually happen – this is just a reality of building political momentum. The dealing of TikTok as a national security concern is something that politicians of all stripes can hang a girthy stetson on.

Brand plan: no changes.

All in all – and smack me with smoked kipper in the morning if I’m wrong – I don’t think there is a huge amount to panic about. The viral FYP strategy you’ve spent far too long tweaking, with far too little data (talk to us for the real deal, naturally) for months and months, is more than likely safe and sound.